Workshop on Climate change-migration-conflict nexus in the Mediterranean: lessons learned and future perspectives

Overview and objectives

The workshop on “The Climate Change-Migration-Conflict Nexus in the Mediterranean: Lessons Learned and Future Perspectives” was held in Nicosia, Cyprus, on September 24–25, under the auspices of MedECC. The event was part of a series of pre-workshops organised in the context – and piror- to the international conference on the Climate Crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to interconnected challenges of climate change, migration, and conflict.

The major objectives of the workshop were a review of the main results of the MedECC Special Report on Environmental Change, Migration and Conflicts in the Mediterranean, on the one hand. On the other, the participants explored “lessons learned and the way forward“ with regard to research and political initiatives aimed to minimise the adverse effects of the migration crisis in the Mediterranean.

Key insights from discussions

The Mediterranean represents an important transit and destination region. The associated large human suffering and the loss of lives of migrants deserve special attention by scholars and political decision makers alike. Based on 13 presentations by invited speakers, participants at the workshop engaged in extensive discussions on various aspects of the interrelationships between environmental changes, migration and conflicts. It was concluded that the decision to move is mainly determined by significant deteriorations of living conditions, which may be caused by environmental changes and/or (armed) conflicts in a given region or country. It was also concluded that environmental changes can be considered as a risk multiplier of ongoing tensions that are interwoven with the region’s geopolitical dimensions. However, the combination of armed conflicts, violence and environmental-related disasters lead to compound effects that may include synergistic effects between the named drivers. Quantifiable and direct relationships between environmental change, conflict and migration are complex and nonlinear and have yet to be formulated. They have been described by the Environmental Change-Migration-Conflict Nexus.

The participants also identified a number of political implications, which are based on our current understanding of the Nexus. It was concluded that existing knowledge gaps, and lacking consensus among scientists on the underlying relationships and interdependencies between the elements of the Nexus should be addressed through an informed and objective Science-Policy Interface. While many countries in the Mediterranean lack formal cooperative security institutions, avoiding environment-related instability and conflicts has assumed high priority on the national level. The participants therefore concluded that the governments of Mediterranean countries would greatly benefit from acting together to break down barriers and obstacles to environmental diplomacy and engage in effective cooperation to address effectively the migration crisis in the region and to minimize the related human suffering.

Reported by Manfred A. Lange, organiser of the workshop, and Report Coordinator of MedECC Special report on Environmental change, conflicts, and human migration.

Speakers and Presentations

Experts from various disciplines and institutions contributed to the workshop:

1. Manfred A. Lange (The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus): Introduction to MedECC’s report and workshop background.
2. Wolfgang Cramer (IMBE, France): Nexus dynamics within the MedECC framework.
3. Efthymia Nikita (The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus): Insights from bioarchaeology on adaptability and resilience.
4. Roula Majdalani (ESCWA, Lebanon): Current Nexus conditions in the Middle East.
5. Audrey Brouillet (IRD, France): Spatiotemporal dimensions of the Nexus.
6. George Zittis (The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus): The role of extreme climate events in human mobility.
7. Jürgen Scheffran (Universität Hamburg, Germany): Challenges for regional security and cooperation.
8. Eda Acara (Istanbul Policy Center, Türkiye): Interrelationships and repercussions of the Nexus drivers.
9. Jan Wilkens (Universität Hamburg, Germany): Understanding the environment-migration relationship.
10. Anthi Koskina (University of Athens, Greece): Socio-legal dimensions of science-based policymaking.
11. Julien Le Tellier (ESCWA, Lebanon): Science-policy interface in Nexus contexts.
12. Nicolas Jarraud (The Cyprus Institute, Cyprus): Nexus implications within the Cyprus Climate Change Initiative.
13. Cagdas Dedeoglu (Yorkville University, Canada): Research gaps and future directions.